When it comes to decision-making, everyone wants to be rational, but the real test of rationality is under pressure: a sales call, presentation, sports event, or a dogfight (close-range aerial battle).
And no wonder, one of the best mental models to succeed in high-paced conflicts comes from the military: the OODA Loop. Developed by strategist and U.S. Airforce Colonel John Boyd, “OODA Loop” is the “cycle of Observe-Orient-Decide-Act.”
Here’s the basic idea: When a conflict suddenly crops up, we often don’t have enough time to understand all the variables and need to act quickly. But it doesn’t have to be haphazard. You can create a feedback loop of Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action and increase chances of victory with each iteration as we absorb more information while acting faster than the adversary.
But how does it work? The steps of this feedback loop can be described as follows.
1. Observe:
Observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible
For a fighter pilot, it could include questions like “What can impact me immediately?” or “Is the enemy following a predictable pattern?”
2. Orient:
Be present in the moment and see the world as it really is, free from cognitive biases and shortcuts
This step is less intuitive than others, but John Boyd called it “the main emphasis” and cautions against skipping it
Four main barriers to Orientation that Boyd identified are:
Our cultural tradition that defines our “normal”
Our genetic heritage that defines our constraints
Our ability to analyze and synthesize that depends on how much we have practiced critical thinking
The influx of new information that makes it hard to make sense of observations as the situation keeps changing
Boyd suggests identifying our biases in daily life and replacing them with mental models so we can be ready when the real conflict arises
3. Decide:
If you have done the previous two steps diligently, this step is simple: make a choice based on the output of your synthesis so far
But remember, OODA is a loop, so your decision may vary in every iteration
Boyd cautioned against first-conclusion bias to avoid making the same decision again and again
Look at your decisions as a hypothesis that gets tested in each OODA cycle, and once you spot their flaws, improve them in the next iteration
4. Act:
Action is the test of your decision
If it leads to an unfavorable outcome, quickly run second OODA Loop and test a different decision
If you have been to the Tree of Life – Level 3, you would be aware of how Resistance can limit our growth in favor of comfort. From fear to blame, it uses any possible method to stop us. And one such fear is the fear of failure.
Use OODA as a way to operate in the face of Resistance. Fear of uncertainty is natural, but action is the only way to overcome it. Often, when the fear is too high, people get stuck in the Observation stage of OODA, taking forever researching, reading a book, asking others for advice, etc. Avoid deceiving yourself and equating this passivity to Action.
The beauty of OODA is that it is applicable in almost all situations, and it teaches you a way to operate in the moment, spontaneously, in an ever-changing world. If you use OODA, you gain an advantage over anyone else who solely relies on their past knowledge and personal experiences to operate. You become nimble, agile, always adapting to the moment, and leaving everyone else confused about your next move.
As Sun Tzu writes in The Art of War: “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
OODA is a gem that can be applied to any situation, from a simple conversation to a doctor handling an emergency case. The more you practice it, the more it becomes your default mode of operation, always operating in feedback loops and making continuous improvements. And the best part is that in most scenarios, you would have more time to use OODA than a fighter pilot in a dogfight.
Start Observing-Orienting-Deciding-Acting today.
Rise & Shine! 😊